I am one of Google's greatest supporters, but in the realm of the web, there is a huge price to pay for success. Looking back on a number of service providers, it makes for an interesting growth model. First there was MSN offering free Hotmail accounts. I used to love their site until they became too successful. Their site was so popular that everyone wanted a Hotmail account. The consequence was that their service became really slow.
I see the same thing happening with Google. It adds more features making Google an even more compelling service to use, but the service is starting to deteriorate. The signs I see are these:
1. Requests to close mail accounts I am not using
2. Congestion or service down on weekends
3. Service down for Google Chat function
This is a problem for Google shareholders because if the market is pricing the Google stock at a premium because they have a history of surprising the market on the upside. When they show a performance below expectations, I think you can expect them to collapse in value. It will be interesting to see if they can re-invent themselves.
Actually I think the greater threat to Google is on the revenue side. I think people are starting to loose interest in the adverts its clients place on their sites. I've noticed that I don't get as many clicks as before despite my web traffic growing.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
I see the same thing happening with Google. It adds more features making Google an even more compelling service to use, but the service is starting to deteriorate. The signs I see are these:
1. Requests to close mail accounts I am not using
2. Congestion or service down on weekends
3. Service down for Google Chat function
This is a problem for Google shareholders because if the market is pricing the Google stock at a premium because they have a history of surprising the market on the upside. When they show a performance below expectations, I think you can expect them to collapse in value. It will be interesting to see if they can re-invent themselves.
Actually I think the greater threat to Google is on the revenue side. I think people are starting to loose interest in the adverts its clients place on their sites. I've noticed that I don't get as many clicks as before despite my web traffic growing.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
Posts
3 comments:
Goddammit... I hate it how no one can correctly spell 'lose'. The double-o one is the opposite of tight.
Nice site. I'm thinking about going long on WBC. I agree with you that Google has no revenue model, and the more people who use their service, the more money they have to keep paying for computers and bandwidth.
I've never _ONCE_ clicked a google AD (and neither have any of my friends) which has lead Google receiving any revenue. I think all of Google's revenue is "hopeful" companies paying for ads, but eventually the companies will realize that few actually click these, and even fewer actually purchase products.
I like Apple a lot more than Google, since they also have high growth, sell tangible products to real people, and don't have expenses for massive infrastructure to support people like me who never buy anything from advertisements.
http://www.angrylibertarian.com
(No stock information yet)
My old picks are at:
http://nosatalian.homelinux.com/index.php/Stock_Thoughts
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