Adamus Resources (ADU.ASX) & Endeavour Mining Corp (EDV.TSE) merger

Its not really a blue-chip proposition, however the forthcoming merger of Adamus Resources (ADU.ASX) and Endeavour Mining Corp (EDV.TSE) strikes me as a good deal for all concerned because:

1. The merger will raise the ranking of two gold stocks - so more attractive to institutions

2. The two listed entities will be on two stock exchanges - at least

3. The two companies are a good fit - Endeavour is cashed up

4. They will be able to wipe out a hedge book

5. They have a lot of upside from project expansion and exploration

6. The gold price can be expected to rally in coming months as uncertainty arises over the recapitalisation or debasement of the EUR. I'm expecting gold to reach $2500/oz.

7. Benefits of a diversified mine operator

Anyway, this seemed like a compelling time to buy an emerging gold stock, even if I was a little late in doing so. I've been focused on other things lately with the election in NZ, and the preparation of a book. In any respect, this is my first stock investment in a few months.

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Discretionary showroom retailers are under threat

The shift to online commerce is a shift that major retailers of discretionary products have failed to anticipate. They really did not appreciate their vulnerability, and this is true for several reasons:

1. Economies of scale - Online sellers have far better economies of scale

2. Superior profit margins - Online sellers have slightly higher distribution costs, but they have much lower capital overhead, staff costs and warehousing costs. They don'y have to sit on as much dead stock.

3. Sales exemption - In many countries online retailers can avoid sales taxes, whether they are claimed legally or illegally by the buyer of the goods.

4. Recession - People are looking for discounts more than ever.

5. Security - People are feeling more and more secure buying product online, and are broadening the range of product they buy online.

6. Less staff turnover - Showroom retailers rely on cheap youths whose jobs are seasonal, and the consumers buying habits are also seasonal. Online websites can be internationally integrated.

7. Fewer product returns - Online buyers are less likely to return products.

8. Product disclosure - Online sellers have a far easier and more effective product and sales policy disclosure. There is a tendency for customers to just trust major traditional retailers.

9. Regulation - Online sales are regulated by the market. Online sellers are far more accountable than showroom retailers because unhappy customers can get online can discredit a business, and any maligned customers soon establish a presence. If I was unhappy customer of Harvey Norman, I might find that the company has technically done nothing wrong, i.e. There are loopholes in arbitrary statutory law, or I might find that the government offers few resources to assist retailers. For online customers, they need only search for 'RETAILER, scam, bad service, complaints' and see what comes up, or go to forums. Once you high a reliable supplier, you can stay with them, or keep searching.

10. Online sellers stock the latest products and at reasonable mark ups. I suspect that manufactures have dropped the discrepancies between major product markets. i.e. the latest digital camera in Japan might be $500, but in Australia it will be $1200. Over time that price margin will erode, but you will always be buying old product.

Consumer Backlash: Some traditional 'showroom' retailers are lobbying governments for tax concessions, and are being attacked by consumers who oppose their lobbying to increase taxes on the consumer. Those in the firing line in Australia include Harvey Norman, Myer Group, and others. These companies and others have set up a coalition to lobby the government. The problem is - they only have lobbying muscle so long as they are able to create jobs, and they are a dying industry who only preserve some relevance for those elderly people who have not grasped the internet, and who don't have grandkids to help them. Expect tools in the future to help those elderly people adjust, i.e. Some product search feature which trolls the databases of major online retailers.

The reality is that any consumer complaining about the high mark-ups of Australian retailers are not likely to pose much of a threat to these retailers, simply because they are the people already enjoying the benefits of online buying. The problem is the lobbying by the retailers themselves - they are effectively telling customers they can save 50-80% by buying online. They are posting nationwide newspaper advertisements to tell them. Basically any 'showroom' retailer selling discretionary items is going to suffer because people can afford to wait a few weeks for these items. The biggest exponent of tax reform has been Gerry Harvey, and he is being savaged in the traditional and social media for his support of adopting the GST upon foreign online sales.

Looking at the stock prices for these two companies -Myer and Harvey Norman - and it is safe to say that these businesses will be a shadow of their former self, and will eventually disappear. You soon realise that many of the services they provide can be offered by online sellers as well, if they ever needed to.

The Australian 'showroom' retailers are particularly vulnerable if they don't own the stores and since they are not integrated in with railway developments. The good news is that the Australian economy is very strong, and there are a lot of wealthy who are not terribly discerning about where they buy from, and thus not particularly fuzzy. That price gap will be closed. In Japan, 'showroom' retailers like Sobu and Toban are vertically integrated with the ownership of railways. I think people will want to go out and 'window shop', as they do in Japan, but I think you will find people increasingly just walk into the store, kick the tyres, eat at a restaurant and go home, knowing that they had a nice day out "virtually" shopping, before they do their "real" shopping online. Harvey Norman, CEO of Harvey Norman Ltd, attributes this trend to the 10% tax. Nonsense, its the least significant factor.

For my thoughts on Gerry Harvey's tax lobbying - see here.

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Coalspur (ASX:CPL) - a company making project

This is not strictly a blue-chip stock but it will resemble one in a few years since a company-making mining project. Australian coal miners have always competed with Canada, Colombia, Venezuela, Indonesia, South Africa and China in the seaborne coal market. Colombian coal mostly goes to Europe, South Africa is for domestic, EU and Asia, Venezuela to EU & USA, Indonesia for domestic and Asia, and increasing China is for domestic, as it can afford little export capacity given its burgeoning energy market.

West Coast Canada coal mining capacity lies amongst the Rocky Mountains. Most of the coal is used for domestic applications, however when prices have been high, some capacity has always leaked in to the Asian market. A strong Chinese demand and an appetite for coal from other sources than Australia, makes this company particularly appealing.

Coalspur (ASX:CPL) is developing a 900Mt thermal coal resource in Western Canada's Rocky Mountains. It is a lower quality coal (5800kcal/kg GAR) compared to Australian projects (6400kcal/kg GAR), so its $48/tonne FOB operating cost is not directly comparable. I suspect this local port can only do panamax ships (70,000dwt), so they will have a freight penalty to Asia, but perhaps not NE Asia (China, Japan). Canada appears to have a 15% federal resource tax judging from the feasibility study. The project is expected to generate cashflows of $110-180mil per annum. Expect this project to find a Chinese financier looking for project equity and marketing rights. For more info refer to www.coalspur.com/asx-announcements.

West Coast Canada has always been an exporter of coal to Asia, and it does not have the same potential as Australia for new capacity. This project however has a large resource. I suggest it has remained undeveloped until now because of the low coal prices before they took off a few years ago, and because the coal is lower energy. There is probably good reason they will stay high given the Asian demand for electricity, and prospect of electric cars.

Most mines I think in West Canada have been developed primarily for the domestic market. So long as China is strong, this project has value. i.e. It is vulnerable to a collapse in Chinese economic activity. I expect China to take off though, so I see little reason to expect a collapse. The company has placed shares to a strategic investor, ie. 67mil at 50c, raising $35mil, plus $7mil, so they have $42mil, which will allow them to finance some project development. I have no idea why the options were given 1:2 so cheaply. The company has 367mil shares at 77c worth $270mil. See Google Finance for a stock chart - support is at 60c, but personally I would not be surprised to see them fall back to 45c after an issue.

I have mixed feelings about this one because of the issues already make. Too much corporate activity is happening behind the scenes. I think this could have been a far better investment for you, and I was a bit late finding it. Just one to watch until it falls to one of those support levels. A mental post-it note for all of you. The project does have the capacity to produce a great deal of coal as there is a lot of unused coal export capacity in the region I suspect. These issues need to be considered. I called this a 'blue chip' only because I won't be buying it.

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

SMH tips - a mix of good and bad

I note that the SMH is recommending a few stocks, some of which we think look good:

1. Abacus Group (ASX:ABP) - see http://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX:ABP - the chart seems to suggest to me they are consolidating before making a move

2. Fairfax Media Ltd (ASX:FXJ): I much like Fairfax Media limited as well because I see the media companies benefiting from increased penetration of the Facebook and Twitter domains. The interesting aspect will be the revenue they will eventually derive from Facebook and Twitter for use of their stories. I am expecting the media groups to profit from sharing of media stories. See http://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX:FXJ. They will eventually realise they should be allowing you to share content, and to benefit from sharing that content.

3. Harvey Norman (ASX:HVN): The chart is less impressive to me, probably because they trade off higher priced, higher margin products, and that is not attractive in this internet-based revolution, so whilst earnings might recover in a strong Australian market, I think they will lose market share. So less attracted by this stock, and that is reflected in a less appealing chart trend. See http://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX:HVN.

4. News Corporation (ASX:NWS) - The Sydney Morning Herald is recommending media stocks to its readers. Does it not see a conflict of interest there? The stock is even trending down. Maybe that is why it feels compelled to recommend Fairfax. Anyway, we would be looking for signs of support in this stock before we signed on. See http://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX:NWS. I trust I am matching the right paper to the right group. I guess the problem for News Corp is its exposure to the weaker US and European market. So I would look for downside to that magical $10 support it always seems to go for. In the meantime, I'd go for Fairfax for media exposure.

5. Sims Metal Management (ASX:SGM) - This is a great stock, but this does not appear to be the time to buy them. I guess the problem is a shortage of scrap, but I must confess I do not know the dynamics of the industry. See http://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX:SGM.

6. Salamat Group (ASX:SLM): I actually know something about this group because of my partner's background in the call centre market. The stock has already recovered, and I don't have such a positive view of the industry, as I see people relying more upon online support, people being prepared to use more online support, and the outsourcing of business to offshore call centres, where they will see margins fall. Interesting they use Malaysia as a call-centre base. In this respect they will probably confront higher staff turnover than in the Philippines, as well as a smaller population base. They will have a better work ethic than Filipinos, however Filipinos are more personable, and I think provides a more sustainable call centre base. See http://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX:SLM. This stock I think will not yield much growth, but more likely trading volatility, in which case, you have missed the move already.

7. UGL Limited (ASX:UGL): I like engineering contractors like UGL, and the chart has some appeal, as I think we are destined to see a breakout. Resolution of the election will likely give greater comfort to investors that the company will be able to book more project contracts in future, so I can see this stock breaking resistance, but I would watch for confirmation of a positive trend, as I don't know the market position of this stock. See http://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX:UGL.

SMH also recommended some gold stocks, though I don't like the top end of the mining market. See my speculators blog.

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Aquarius Platinum (AQP:LSE)

There is some temptation to buy Aquarius Platinum (AQP) given the current strength in platinum prices. The problem of course is that I think this stock will under-perform as long as the broader commodities market is strong. There will come a time when copper, vanadium and other commodities which we associate with South Africa, get sold off. Until such time, I would expect AQP earnings to be effected by the strong Rand, as well as disruptions to mine production, which have just been resolved. The outlook for this company will otherwise be good as precious metals prices rise.

The chart also looks good, though I think I'd be looking for a market entry closer to support. We can see the previous resistance provides a line of support at 318 pounds.
You can buy this stock in Australia as well, as I did many years ago at 80c, but the chart is different. Its probably listed in South Africa too.

Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Aquarius Platinum - watch for new highs

Aquarius Platinum has been doing very well of late after having recommended them at $2.60 about 6-7 months ago. I would be taking a look as they test a previous resistance level. My concern is that they will fall back in the light of current SIV fears. I would wait for market direction on this issue. One must remember that this is a very volatile stock, so one needs to react quickly to any technical signal. Refer to the attached chart - you are looking for a break out to a new high, or a fall below the previous low. The outlook for platinum is very good - both because its a monetary asset and because of its application in fuel cells, but that is long term. In the short term, I believe they are expanding output and cutting costs.

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Australian Agricultural Company (AAC.ASX)

Once again we are at a place where Australian Agricultural Company not only becomes a good buy, but I would suggest to you its a probable takeover target. I'm not altogether sure a takeover would succeed however. Why? For two reasons:

1. Its the only public company in Australia
2. I think its the largest private owner of land in Australia - so I can't see that passing to foreign hands
I have already sung the praises of this company, so I'd be inclined to just refer to those. Once again its a timely entry. Food prices will move up, and this company will continue to benefit from strong beef demand in Asia, and I would suggest from a free trade agreement with ASEAN countries. It will even benefit from climate change, as northern Australia is experiencing more rain.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Futuris Corporation (FCL) - buy

Futuris Corp is one of my dad's old favourite companies. In actual fact this is precisely the type of company that is good to buy in these times because it is a large company with good exposure to the rural Australian economy. There are several reasons why we should be excited about that:

1. Commodity prices might have collapsed, but food prices will hold up better, and the $A has collapsed as well so $US receipts from commodities will translate into a lot of $A. That is good for farmers.
2. I would also expect the rural sector to benefit from infrastructure projects in rural areas. Nation building projects.
Aside from these points - the stock has reached a low point. Looking at the chart, we can see a hang-man candle pattern, which to my mind is a signal to re-enter this stock.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Commonwealth Bank (CBA.ASX) - support $20-22

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) is another bank which has plummeted to lows. I can actually see it finding support soon - around $20-22/share. I'd be inclined to place an order around $20 because I think it will reach those levels during intra-day trading and recover to $22-23 level.
Historically the stock has proven strong resistance at $35/share, however is this market I would be surprised to see it exceed $30/share.

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Bank of Queensland (BOQ.ASX) - support at $7

The Bank of Queensland (BOQ.ASX) strikes me as an even better buy than ANZ because of its favourable geogrpahic exposure to Queensland. Queensland has several positive aspects to it:

1. Strong population growth
2. Strong tourism potential - given the low $A outlook
3. Strong coal & gas sector - thanks to coal seam methane. The investments planned in this sector will be preparatory for the day the global recovery occurs. There are plans for an LNG terminal for the gas, likely power stations, there is a constraint on coal export capacity too.
4. Prospect of a merger with a financial services (wealth management enterprise) - long term
This bank also has collapsed along with the other banks. There is I suggest the prospect of greater exposure to loans, so you might want to investigate its provisions for doubtful debts, and the CEOs comments in this regard. But for a trade, there is some upside coming.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

ANZ Bank - approaching $10 support level

Australian & New Zealand Banking Corporation (ANZ) is under stress as it approaches its $10 support level. The Australian banking sector is in good condition I would think, so this would strike me as a good base from which to buy. ANZ does have greater exposure to NZ, but the other banks are similarly exposed. Commonwealth Bank owns Auckland Savings Bank (ASB) and Westpac also has a subsidiary here. ANZ has been the leading Australian bank in the Asian market.

ANZ has fallen from over $30 to almost $10. That strikes me as a decent correction even if the banking sector is not going to be one of the best performing in the next few years. One needs to remember that the banks have a solid position in wealth management, and their control of credit and forex is unassailable thanks to government favours (barriers to entry). People will say that there are no barriers to entry, but the reality is that huge amounts of money would be required to duplicate the position of the major banks. Interestingly a number of Australian financial institutions are interested in becoming banks, so we might just see that reality. I would love to see an online bank like Shinsei Bank in Japan. But you really want a bank that can perform all the tricks. Its not enough to offer cheap services, you want a full range of services. eg. Stock broking. Some existing banks have relationships with third party brokers, etc, but these relationships are too arms-length to effectively integrate services. B
uy at $10, look for exit before $15. No buy & hold in this climate. We should be traders for the next few years, with the exception of gold & silver, where we can take longer term positions.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Alumina Ltd (AWC.ASX) - good buy

The bulk materials like coal, iron ore, alumina have faired a lot better than the base metals like nickel, copper, lead and zinc, so one might consider Alumina Ltd (AWC.ASX) a good buy because its going to benefit from a weaker AUD, but its been dragged down by other commodity stocks. China does not have bauxite to my knowledge, so given the opportunity for Chinese (govt) owned corporations to launch takeovers, this might be expected to be a compelling takeover target. I'm a little outdated, but if you check Google Finance, I think you will find Rio Tinto and Alcoa each own a good portion of this corporation. The question is whether it would be up for sale. Interestingly Alcoa is helping the Chinese government block the BHP Billiton takeover of Rio Tinto, so maybe they are is a 'kickback' in terms of giving the Chinese a stake in Alumina.
You are going to see a lot more Chinese investment in the Australian resources sector. Its been on the cards for a long time. This slack market provides the perfect conditions for a takeover. This is the time to start learning how to pick mining stocks. Do you know the types of companies that the Chinese are going to buy? This stock is at technical support.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Healthscope (HSP.ASX)

Healthscope over the last 8 years have been a spectacular performer. I do however question whether they can continue this performance. The conventional wisdom is that everyone needs healthcare, even in recessions, and no one cares about costs when it comes to costs, but I want to offer a number of counter-arguments.
1. No one wants to be a nurse in a hospital, so its hard to find staff, and still harder to pay enough to keep them, particularly where there is higher wages overseas.
2. All costs are rising
3. Service outsourcing is becoming more common. We will see more patients going overseas for treatment.
4. Health remains a highly regulated area, and I think people are more likely to cut back on private insurance. Its true successive governments have shown their support by propping up the private system. But given the quality of public health, and the choice of overseas treatment, I suspect healthcare will seem less alluring than indicated.
I thus will be looking to see whether this stock will break the $5.00 support, or whether it continues its uptrend. More information at Google Finance and see my discussion forum.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Qantas (QAN.ASX) - what goes up must come down

Qantas has pulled back alot from $6.00 to $4.50, and people might be thinking this poses a great entry. I am however discouraged by several factors. The stock was pushed up by a failed leveraged takeover, the support has really not sufficiently tested the $4.20 support level, and whilst I suspect it will consolidate at that level, I dont see it holding it. I think the airline will struggle to fill seats in a contracting economy, and I think discount airlines will make a bigger impact, and regional airports will grab more market share. I think alot of cities are pricing themselves out of the tourist market and business travel will likewise contract. For this reason I can see them falling back to $3.00. More informationn at Google Finance, and see my discussion forum.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

IAG Australia Group (IAG.ASX)

There was a good opportunity to trade IAG stock last week which I missed, though the stock is technically still in a downtrend, so there might be an opportunity to buy back in at $3.50. We can see in the charts to the left that $3.50 is an important technical support. I actually dont see alot of upside in this stock, instead I think we are likely to see consolidation. The first chart is weekly, the 2nd a weekly chart. For further information on IAG see Google Finance and my discussion forum.

Westpac Banking Corp (WBC.ASX)

Westpac is one of Australia's largest banks, and I would suggest one of the better bank investments because of their move into resource investment banking in recent years. I do however not think now is the time to buy because of the outlook for higher interest rates and inflation. I also expect they will follow the ANZ by reporting increased bad debt provsions. I therefore think they will break the $21.70 support level, and can see them falling back to the $20 support level. This level is far stronger.
For more information on Westpac look at Google Finance and see my discussion forum.

BHP, RIO looking good, steel companies facing higher costs

Coincidentally, after suggesting selling steel companies Bluescope and OneSteel, I see a report out today that "Japanese agree to 65% Iron Ore Price Gain". Thats a big increase. I dont follow iron ore prices so closely, but I suggest this merely reflects the Japanese & Chinese conceding that they have to accept the annual price setting negotiation system that has been in place for decades. Until now they have avoided the system, resulting in an increasing amount of iron ore being sold into the spot market. Acceptance of the system seems to acknowledge the risks of not helping to finance new projects, as well as the risk of not securing the product they require.
Anyway, higher iron ore and coal prices is good for Rio Tinto and its takeover suitor BHP-Billiton. Both are huge producers of iron ore, though I prefer BHP at the time for its greater coking coal exposure, but there will come a time when thermal coal (Rio Tinto) makes more sense. The takeover might reflect that.
The flipside is that this news confirms my recommendation to sell off the steel companies because they will confront higher raw material costs.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Futuris Corporation (FCL.ASX)

Futuris Corp is looking good with its exposure to the Australian agricultural commodity/rural sector. Futuris holds a stake in Elders Finance & stock agency, as well as fertiliser to my 'limited' knowledge. Given the outlook for commodities, this is a great stock to hold. In fact now is a perfect entry given that the stock has fallen back to a solid support at $2.00. I have no hesitation recommending this stock. Join my Google Finance FCL Forum!
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Mincor Resources (MCR.ASX) at technical lows

Mincor Resources has reached a technical buy point judging from the following chart. The fundamentals are looking good as well since nickel prices have consolidated and stockpiles have stabilised. Might the next move in stockpiles be down? I think so. See my latest post on nickel prices and stocks at http://hot-metals.blogspot.com.
The support level for Mincor Res is $2.70, and the stock is currently trading at $2.92. Based on the positive outlook for nickel, I do believe this stock is about to rally. It fell off its high very quickly, and I suggest it will provide traders with a good rally.
Join my Google Finance MCR Forum!
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

OneSteel Ltd (OST.ASX)

Onesteel like Bluescope looks like another candidate for short-selling, only more so if the attached chart is anything to go by. This will be the 3rd attempt by this stock to break the $7.30 level. In fact the hang-man candlestick is already giving us a sign of weakness. Great for a short sell!
If you want to join my discussion on this stock, go to Google Finance.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com