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Sunday, August 29, 2010

SMH tips - a mix of good and bad

I note that the SMH is recommending a few stocks, some of which we think look good:
1. Abacus Group (ASX:ABP) - see http://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX:ABP - the chart seems to suggest to me they are consolidating before making a move
2. Fairfax Media Ltd (ASX:FXJ): I much like Fairfax Media limited as well because I see the media companies benefiting from increased penetration of the Facebook and Twitter domains. The interesting aspect will be the revenue they will eventually derive from Facebook and Twitter for use of their stories. I am expecting the media groups to profit from sharing of media stories. See http://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX:FXJ. They will eventually realise they should be allowing you to share content, and to benefit from sharing that content.
3. Harvey Norman (ASX:HVN): The chart is less impressive to me, probably because they trade off higher priced, higher margin products, and that is not attractive in this internet-based revolution, so whilst earnings might recover in a strong Australian market, I think they will lose market share. So less attracted by this stock, and that is reflected in a less appealing chart trend. See http://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX:HVN.
4. News Corporation (ASX:NWS) - The Sydney Morning Herald is recommending media stocks to its readers. Does it not see a conflict of interest there? The stock is even trending down. Maybe that is why it feels compelled to recommend Fairfax. Anyway, we would be looking for signs of support in this stock before we signed on. See http://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX:NWS. I trust I am matching the right paper to the right group. I guess the problem for News Corp is its exposure to the weaker US and European market. So I would look for downside to that magical $10 support it always seems to go for. In the meantime, I'd go for Fairfax for media exposure.
5. Sims Metal Management (ASX:SGM) - This is a great stock, but this does not appear to be the time to buy them. I guess the problem is a shortage of scrap, but I must confess I do not know the dynamics of the industry. See http://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX:SGM.
6. Salamat Group (ASX:SLM): I actually know something about this group because of my partner's background in the call centre market. The stock has already recovered, and I don't have such a positive view of the industry, as I see people relying more upon online support, people being prepared to use more online support, and the outsourcing of business to offshore call centres, where they will see margins fall. Interesting they use Malaysia as a call-centre base. In this respect they will probably confront higher staff turnover than in the Philippines, as well as a smaller population base. They will have a better work ethic than Filipinos, however Filipinos are more personable, and I think provides a more sustainable call centre base. See http://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX:SLM. This stock I think will not yield much growth, but more likely trading volatility, in which case, you have missed the move already.
7. UGL Limited (ASX:UGL): I like engineering contractors like UGL, and the chart has some appeal, as I think we are destined to see a breakout. Resolution of the election will likely give greater comfort to investors that the company will be able to book more project contracts in future, so I can see this stock breaking resistance, but I would watch for confirmation of a positive trend, as I don't know the market position of this stock. See http://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX:UGL.

SMH also recommended some gold stocks, though I don't like the top end of the mining market. See my speculators blog.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
Posted by Andrew Sheldon at 5:27 PM
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