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Global Mining Investing is a reference eBook to teach investors how to think and act as investors with a underlying theme of managing risk. The book touches on a huge amount of content which heavily relies on knowledge that can only be obtained through experience...The text was engaging, as I knew the valuable outcome was to be a better thinker and investor.

While some books (such as Coulson’s An Insider’s Guide to the Mining Sector) focus on one particular commodity this book (Global Mining Investing) attempts (and does well) to cover all types of mining and commodities.

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Sunday, April 13, 2008

Pan Australian Res update (PNA.ASX)

Pan Australian Resources (PNA.ASX) surprised me today by not only breaking its downtrend line, but rising 10c to break its previous high. I expected this to happen, just not in the near-term. I was expected the stock to retrace back to a 85c support based on weakness in copper prices. Maybe the market is telling me something? Might that be:
1. Earnings outlook: That it sees that its trading at just a PER of 4x earnings compared to 14x for its nemisis Oxiana Resources.
2. Metal prices: That copper prices are not going to weaken because of weakness in the USD. It makes sense that copper will be attractive if the USD is weak. I frankly think the USD is falling back to 85Yen, so thats about a 15% move, worth about 40c/lb to copper prices. As expected copper prices have retraced from their $4.00/lb level. I'm still thinking its not going to break $4.00, but I think it might just hold the higher end of its range. If something proves me wrong its going to be the extent to which the market has new supply coming on-stream, and the extent to which strikes are undermining capacity. Supply issues matching weaker demand.
The next issue is - where to from here. Well its encouraging that PNA rallied 10c, that it broke support, and then closed at its high. On that basis I think its going to take off. Looking at the chart, we see that PNA has a weak 'flag structure' or pendant, which suggests that the stock is going to rally another 45c, which would take it to $1.60. That makes for a nice trade. I think you can then some weakness, then consolidation around that level.
PNA is starting to justify its status as a blue chip - which is just as well because I would have little other place to stick it.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
Posted by Andrew Sheldon at 11:14 PM

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