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Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Qantas (QAN.ASX)

Qantas (QAN.ASX) has fallen like a plane in distress of late. Looking at this monthly chart, you could be thinking that around $3.20 is support. I would suggest however that the stock will be pushed down to $3.00, if only during intra-day trading, so I'd be placing orders around $3.05.
Why are they so weak? I'm not certain, but I suspect its because of:
1. Slump in business activity
2. Slump in inbound tourism due to strong $AU
3. Higher fuel prices - though I understood Qantas had a good hedge problem. Maybe its turned awry.
4. Growing domestic competition, lower occupancy rates
5. Higher terminal charges
6. End of takeover speculation. I actually dont know the reason it ended, but I think it failed.
7. Higher interest rates - airlines carry a lot of debt and Qantas bought a lot of planes in recent years.
The stock is a great trade. If you are interested in it as a long term investment, you might consider reading a recent broker report or company-sponsored presentation on the stock. Do research them because there are a lot of negatives above. Its quite possible they will go back to $2.30. What a trade its been! I remember some bad pubicity about James Strong - the CEO.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
Posted by Andrew Sheldon at 5:46 PM
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1 comment:

Value Sourcer said...

the recent qantas bomb scare doesn't help.
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/07/30/qantas.oxygen.ap/index.html

10:47 PM

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