RIM likely to find support

Research in Motion (TSE:RIM or NASDAQ:RIMM) is a stock that has emerged on my radar screen. The company's flagship product is the Blackberry smartphone. This phone has always been very popular with the business community, and we think the company is likely to have a resurgence, but perhaps under Android or Windows OS, or both. i.e. Letting the customer decide. It was never really software that distinguished it in the market was it? And how could you go wrong by adopting the same software as your competitors with a brand like Blackberry. There are other reasons as well:

1. The market is abuzz with tablets and touch screens. These are marketing gimmicks, and RIM is right to not get bedazzled by them. I can touch type far faster with fingers than I can with a touch screen. Buttons have edges; screens don't. I have never understood the appeal of these tablets either. They are tomorrows dinosaur. Expect netbook, mini-laptops and full-size laptops to dominate. Touchscreen is a fad with limited use.

2. Trading on low multiple: RIM is currently capitalised at $28 billion, it has $2billion in cash, and a PER of just 4.7 according to Google Finance.

3. Upside is huge. The market for Blackberry's are a discerning crowd. I personally prefer the Nokia E5, however people can expect a similar experience from RIM in forthcoming models.

Expect their new releases to grab sales from loyal business customers, i.e. Might it be selling off another 25,000 units to GM? I think so. These customers, unlike the retail customers, are sitting on the side, and not just for RIM's new product, but for new Android applications to justify dumping their old phones.

For this reason, I am expecting some good news from RIM in coming months. But what would I know....I am just a mining analyst who loves my Nokia E5. Want more info on RIM - I am responding to this story and Google Financial data.

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Silly acquisition for BHP-Billiton

This is a silly acquisition by BHP-Billiton. If you are going to invest in might oil & gas prices they should be looking at greenfields areas, or green technologies. For example, they ought to be exploring offshore NZ or India (as BP is doing). There is also compelling reasons for it to enter algal technological development, though it might well argue that it makes more sense for it to just purchase the technology when someone else has developed it. The problem is - the technology might be acquired before they can even get their hands on it by one of their competitors. Might it be difficult to know who will be the leader? My guess the oil company throwing the greatest amount of money at it..... at least you will get a market advantage....rather than throwing it away on market speculation.

The reality is that these companies are more interested in building on economies of scale, adding market premiums rather than creating wealth. They are accreters of assets, not builders of assets. Which means they just take advantage of cheap capital in global capital markets to add value, which is passed through to shareholders after they take their bite. Yes, it was always about the CEOs....leave the risks to the small enterprise which really build wealth. The small companies find the oil; the large companies spill it around the world's oceans.

OK, a little unfair. :)

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Discretionary showroom retailers are under threat

The shift to online commerce is a shift that major retailers of discretionary products have failed to anticipate. They really did not appreciate their vulnerability, and this is true for several reasons:

1. Economies of scale - Online sellers have far better economies of scale

2. Superior profit margins - Online sellers have slightly higher distribution costs, but they have much lower capital overhead, staff costs and warehousing costs. They don'y have to sit on as much dead stock.

3. Sales exemption - In many countries online retailers can avoid sales taxes, whether they are claimed legally or illegally by the buyer of the goods.

4. Recession - People are looking for discounts more than ever.

5. Security - People are feeling more and more secure buying product online, and are broadening the range of product they buy online.

6. Less staff turnover - Showroom retailers rely on cheap youths whose jobs are seasonal, and the consumers buying habits are also seasonal. Online websites can be internationally integrated.

7. Fewer product returns - Online buyers are less likely to return products.

8. Product disclosure - Online sellers have a far easier and more effective product and sales policy disclosure. There is a tendency for customers to just trust major traditional retailers.

9. Regulation - Online sales are regulated by the market. Online sellers are far more accountable than showroom retailers because unhappy customers can get online can discredit a business, and any maligned customers soon establish a presence. If I was unhappy customer of Harvey Norman, I might find that the company has technically done nothing wrong, i.e. There are loopholes in arbitrary statutory law, or I might find that the government offers few resources to assist retailers. For online customers, they need only search for 'RETAILER, scam, bad service, complaints' and see what comes up, or go to forums. Once you high a reliable supplier, you can stay with them, or keep searching.

10. Online sellers stock the latest products and at reasonable mark ups. I suspect that manufactures have dropped the discrepancies between major product markets. i.e. the latest digital camera in Japan might be $500, but in Australia it will be $1200. Over time that price margin will erode, but you will always be buying old product.

Consumer Backlash: Some traditional 'showroom' retailers are lobbying governments for tax concessions, and are being attacked by consumers who oppose their lobbying to increase taxes on the consumer. Those in the firing line in Australia include Harvey Norman, Myer Group, and others. These companies and others have set up a coalition to lobby the government. The problem is - they only have lobbying muscle so long as they are able to create jobs, and they are a dying industry who only preserve some relevance for those elderly people who have not grasped the internet, and who don't have grandkids to help them. Expect tools in the future to help those elderly people adjust, i.e. Some product search feature which trolls the databases of major online retailers.

The reality is that any consumer complaining about the high mark-ups of Australian retailers are not likely to pose much of a threat to these retailers, simply because they are the people already enjoying the benefits of online buying. The problem is the lobbying by the retailers themselves - they are effectively telling customers they can save 50-80% by buying online. They are posting nationwide newspaper advertisements to tell them. Basically any 'showroom' retailer selling discretionary items is going to suffer because people can afford to wait a few weeks for these items. The biggest exponent of tax reform has been Gerry Harvey, and he is being savaged in the traditional and social media for his support of adopting the GST upon foreign online sales.

Looking at the stock prices for these two companies -Myer and Harvey Norman - and it is safe to say that these businesses will be a shadow of their former self, and will eventually disappear. You soon realise that many of the services they provide can be offered by online sellers as well, if they ever needed to.

The Australian 'showroom' retailers are particularly vulnerable if they don't own the stores and since they are not integrated in with railway developments. The good news is that the Australian economy is very strong, and there are a lot of wealthy who are not terribly discerning about where they buy from, and thus not particularly fuzzy. That price gap will be closed. In Japan, 'showroom' retailers like Sobu and Toban are vertically integrated with the ownership of railways. I think people will want to go out and 'window shop', as they do in Japan, but I think you will find people increasingly just walk into the store, kick the tyres, eat at a restaurant and go home, knowing that they had a nice day out "virtually" shopping, before they do their "real" shopping online. Harvey Norman, CEO of Harvey Norman Ltd, attributes this trend to the 10% tax. Nonsense, its the least significant factor.

For my thoughts on Gerry Harvey's tax lobbying - see here.

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Coalspur (ASX:CPL) - a company making project

This is not strictly a blue-chip stock but it will resemble one in a few years since a company-making mining project. Australian coal miners have always competed with Canada, Colombia, Venezuela, Indonesia, South Africa and China in the seaborne coal market. Colombian coal mostly goes to Europe, South Africa is for domestic, EU and Asia, Venezuela to EU & USA, Indonesia for domestic and Asia, and increasing China is for domestic, as it can afford little export capacity given its burgeoning energy market.

West Coast Canada coal mining capacity lies amongst the Rocky Mountains. Most of the coal is used for domestic applications, however when prices have been high, some capacity has always leaked in to the Asian market. A strong Chinese demand and an appetite for coal from other sources than Australia, makes this company particularly appealing.

Coalspur (ASX:CPL) is developing a 900Mt thermal coal resource in Western Canada's Rocky Mountains. It is a lower quality coal (5800kcal/kg GAR) compared to Australian projects (6400kcal/kg GAR), so its $48/tonne FOB operating cost is not directly comparable. I suspect this local port can only do panamax ships (70,000dwt), so they will have a freight penalty to Asia, but perhaps not NE Asia (China, Japan). Canada appears to have a 15% federal resource tax judging from the feasibility study. The project is expected to generate cashflows of $110-180mil per annum. Expect this project to find a Chinese financier looking for project equity and marketing rights. For more info refer to www.coalspur.com/asx-announcements.

West Coast Canada has always been an exporter of coal to Asia, and it does not have the same potential as Australia for new capacity. This project however has a large resource. I suggest it has remained undeveloped until now because of the low coal prices before they took off a few years ago, and because the coal is lower energy. There is probably good reason they will stay high given the Asian demand for electricity, and prospect of electric cars.

Most mines I think in West Canada have been developed primarily for the domestic market. So long as China is strong, this project has value. i.e. It is vulnerable to a collapse in Chinese economic activity. I expect China to take off though, so I see little reason to expect a collapse. The company has placed shares to a strategic investor, ie. 67mil at 50c, raising $35mil, plus $7mil, so they have $42mil, which will allow them to finance some project development. I have no idea why the options were given 1:2 so cheaply. The company has 367mil shares at 77c worth $270mil. See Google Finance for a stock chart - support is at 60c, but personally I would not be surprised to see them fall back to 45c after an issue.

I have mixed feelings about this one because of the issues already make. Too much corporate activity is happening behind the scenes. I think this could have been a far better investment for you, and I was a bit late finding it. Just one to watch until it falls to one of those support levels. A mental post-it note for all of you. The project does have the capacity to produce a great deal of coal as there is a lot of unused coal export capacity in the region I suspect. These issues need to be considered. I called this a 'blue chip' only because I won't be buying it.

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

SMH tips - a mix of good and bad

I note that the SMH is recommending a few stocks, some of which we think look good:

1. Abacus Group (ASX:ABP) - see http://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX:ABP - the chart seems to suggest to me they are consolidating before making a move

2. Fairfax Media Ltd (ASX:FXJ): I much like Fairfax Media limited as well because I see the media companies benefiting from increased penetration of the Facebook and Twitter domains. The interesting aspect will be the revenue they will eventually derive from Facebook and Twitter for use of their stories. I am expecting the media groups to profit from sharing of media stories. See http://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX:FXJ. They will eventually realise they should be allowing you to share content, and to benefit from sharing that content.

3. Harvey Norman (ASX:HVN): The chart is less impressive to me, probably because they trade off higher priced, higher margin products, and that is not attractive in this internet-based revolution, so whilst earnings might recover in a strong Australian market, I think they will lose market share. So less attracted by this stock, and that is reflected in a less appealing chart trend. See http://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX:HVN.

4. News Corporation (ASX:NWS) - The Sydney Morning Herald is recommending media stocks to its readers. Does it not see a conflict of interest there? The stock is even trending down. Maybe that is why it feels compelled to recommend Fairfax. Anyway, we would be looking for signs of support in this stock before we signed on. See http://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX:NWS. I trust I am matching the right paper to the right group. I guess the problem for News Corp is its exposure to the weaker US and European market. So I would look for downside to that magical $10 support it always seems to go for. In the meantime, I'd go for Fairfax for media exposure.

5. Sims Metal Management (ASX:SGM) - This is a great stock, but this does not appear to be the time to buy them. I guess the problem is a shortage of scrap, but I must confess I do not know the dynamics of the industry. See http://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX:SGM.

6. Salamat Group (ASX:SLM): I actually know something about this group because of my partner's background in the call centre market. The stock has already recovered, and I don't have such a positive view of the industry, as I see people relying more upon online support, people being prepared to use more online support, and the outsourcing of business to offshore call centres, where they will see margins fall. Interesting they use Malaysia as a call-centre base. In this respect they will probably confront higher staff turnover than in the Philippines, as well as a smaller population base. They will have a better work ethic than Filipinos, however Filipinos are more personable, and I think provides a more sustainable call centre base. See http://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX:SLM. This stock I think will not yield much growth, but more likely trading volatility, in which case, you have missed the move already.

7. UGL Limited (ASX:UGL): I like engineering contractors like UGL, and the chart has some appeal, as I think we are destined to see a breakout. Resolution of the election will likely give greater comfort to investors that the company will be able to book more project contracts in future, so I can see this stock breaking resistance, but I would watch for confirmation of a positive trend, as I don't know the market position of this stock. See http://www.google.com/finance?q=ASX:UGL.

SMH also recommended some gold stocks, though I don't like the top end of the mining market. See my speculators blog.

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com