So what am I recommending to my dad today?
Really the only things you should be buying are
1. Food - Australian Agriculttural Company, Qld Cotton Co (taken over I think), Namoi Cotton. they are getting good rains in Nth NSW so should be a good reason. Agric commodities will recover with gold because demand outlook good. Hmmm.. will those ethanol refining plants close at $65/barrel for oil, so avoid corn, sugar. Better wheat, eg, Graincorp, and AAC
2. Gold - Lihir, and I can find you other stocks over the next couple of days.
Phil lost money on platinum because he doesn't listen. I said buy at $3.80 support, it reached that, then rallied to almost $5, but its such a volatile stock. He accepted your buy & hold. Worse that that - he likely said oh, Andrew's right, I better jump on at $4.50-$5.00, not wanting to miss out, and not talking to me, and he probably paid the highest price of the rally. It will recover though, so he should hold. Its not the first stock I would buy for platinum because its black empowerment in Africa, explosure to Zimbabwe, but its kind of the only one..... I think Platinum will out-perform silver, which will out-perform gold, but gold stocks will do very well, and its hard to get exposure to the others. You suggested PLA - which is also Sth Africa. Medium to long term you will be hurt on a strong RSA currency. That will be a big problem. So better to stay with gold in Australia. Because the collapse of industrial metals and energy will make gold better because they will keep the $A weak, so earnings in Australia gold prices exceptional. Only gold and food will strengthen the export revenues. Sugar & corn will be weak I guess because of energy-related sectors since the oil boom.
I say buy LGL (Lihir) because gold has found support I believe if you look at the charts, But watch as the market falls today, see if gold goes up as stocks go down. Gold is very stable, but strong in $A terms, so the gold producer stocks will eventually respond to that. Its just they are being dragged down, so you need to accumulate this week. Best buying mid to late-week (end Oct'08).
Dad, just looking at some stocks. Mincor has $120mil in cash. the company is currently valued at $140mil. Lower nickel prices but offset by weaker $A, so earnings still good. But long term gold will do better because stronger food and gold prices will push up $A, but not nickel because there will be slack demand for a while, but MCR are over-sold, so you can trade them.
See my blue chips blog I have chart for GNC. Food & gold, and MCR because its special. Has cash & high grade nickel.
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Andrew Sheldon
www.sheldonthinks.com
Looking for a great stock in the rural sector. How about a stock that does well no matter how the economy is fairing? Well consider that companies make money in different ways. Some pay a price for meat or metal which is subject to volatility. Others make money from commissions. Well think of Graincorp because in bad times you and foreigners dont stop eating. Better still, when you are a starving peasant in Asia, you first eat your own food, then you eat cereals because they are cheaper than meat. Rice is the staple in Asia, but other cereals are growing, such as bread, pasta, etc. Pasta and noodles are cheap and easy to store. Bread gets mouldy.
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