Global Mining Investing $69.95, 2 Volume e-Book Set. Buy here.
Author, Andrew Sheldon

Global Mining Investing is a reference eBook to teach investors how to think and act as investors with a underlying theme of managing risk. The book touches on a huge amount of content which heavily relies on knowledge that can only be obtained through experience...The text was engaging, as I knew the valuable outcome was to be a better thinker and investor.

While some books (such as Coulson’s An Insider’s Guide to the Mining Sector) focus on one particular commodity this book (Global Mining Investing) attempts (and does well) to cover all types of mining and commodities.

Global Mining Investing - see store

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Friday, May 09, 2008

Bank welfare reaches its zenith

Ever wondered why CEOs of the major companies are paid so much. Yeh, I don’t have any answers as well. Well it goes like this. The central bankers and politicians conspire to artificially increase money supply by stimulating debt creation. Initially everyone is happy because everyone is making money. They of course make alot more because they control a lot more. Asset prices soar, and the silly bastards that were too slow to buy lose their houses when interest rates or low yields finally deliver the ‘credit crunch’ or the ‘big squeeze’ as I affectionately call it. The CEOs are paid well for delivering years of huge profits. But were they ever really any good? Well you would never know in a bull market because its so easy to make money. It would be nice to think if they are going to get bonuses for performance, those bonuses should be tied to average industry performance. But these ‘smart bankers’ are too good for such measures of performance, they like to be tied to nominal, absolute dollar performance, even though relative performance is far more pertinent in assessing the worth of a CEO against other CEOs. I guess directors want the same deal so they don’t complain.

Are you following the logic so far? Well this is the time to swallow a few ‘magic mushrooms’ because these CEOs are just about to concede that they are not the best CEOs in the world, and that they misjudged the market. Did they really? No, its just that they had a vested interest in not caring if they were serving the long term interest of shareholders.

These bank CEOs are asking the Reserve Bank of Australia to bail them out of their non-performing debts. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) is creating a $15.6 billion residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS) which can be used for repurchase agreements with the RBA to generate up to an additional $12.25 billion of liquidity should the bank experience liquidity difficulties. This follows similar transactions in the USA since last September. As with repurchase agreement (repo), the institution promises to reverse that swap in a year. It is effectively secured lending by the central bank. At least to the credit of the RBA and Australian government there is some semblance of rationality to the current RBA interest rates. The US Fed Reserve meantime is dealing with worse credit market conditions, but its Fed rate is a subdued 2%.

The problem as I see it is the whole structure of the market. Politicians and business push the economy or their respective business to the point of failure, collect all the credit, political power and bonuses, and then through the central bank, they are allowed to pass responsibility for their failures to the taxpayer. Any proud taxpayers out there? Any law abiding citizens who think the organised criminals have higher standards of ethics. I say that because criminals have a sense of reality. They don’t pretend to be upstanding citizens. The hide their business activities, they don’t disclose it as normal practice. How is this different from the corporate welfare we abolished in the 1980s – the tariff protection for textile and car industries. I think this is far worse.

Maybe you should interpret this as a recommendation for banking stocks. The market is no longer behaving as a market. Nothing makes any sense any more. This is fascism at its worst. Just the colours have changed. It used to be red, but the colour of today is pink.

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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Qantas (QAN.ASX)

Qantas (QAN.ASX) has fallen like a plane in distress of late. Looking at this monthly chart, you could be thinking that around $3.20 is support. I would suggest however that the stock will be pushed down to $3.00, if only during intra-day trading, so I'd be placing orders around $3.05.
Why are they so weak? I'm not certain, but I suspect its because of:
1. Slump in business activity
2. Slump in inbound tourism due to strong $AU
3. Higher fuel prices - though I understood Qantas had a good hedge problem. Maybe its turned awry.
4. Growing domestic competition, lower occupancy rates
5. Higher terminal charges
6. End of takeover speculation. I actually dont know the reason it ended, but I think it failed.
7. Higher interest rates - airlines carry a lot of debt and Qantas bought a lot of planes in recent years.
The stock is a great trade. If you are interested in it as a long term investment, you might consider reading a recent broker report or company-sponsored presentation on the stock. Do research them because there are a lot of negatives above. Its quite possible they will go back to $2.30. What a trade its been! I remember some bad pubicity about James Strong - the CEO.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Google - the price of success

I am one of Google's greatest supporters, but in the realm of the web, there is a huge price to pay for success. Looking back on a number of service providers, it makes for an interesting growth model. First there was MSN offering free Hotmail accounts. I used to love their site until they became too successful. Their site was so popular that everyone wanted a Hotmail account. The consequence was that their service became really slow.
I see the same thing happening with Google. It adds more features making Google an even more compelling service to use, but the service is starting to deteriorate. The signs I see are these:
1. Requests to close mail accounts I am not using
2. Congestion or service down on weekends
3. Service down for Google Chat function

This is a problem for Google shareholders because if the market is pricing the Google stock at a premium because they have a history of surprising the market on the upside. When they show a performance below expectations, I think you can expect them to collapse in value. It will be interesting to see if they can re-invent themselves.

Actually I think the greater threat to Google is on the revenue side. I think people are starting to loose interest in the adverts its clients place on their sites. I've noticed that I don't get as many clicks as before despite my web traffic growing.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Sunday, April 13, 2008

Pan Australian Res update (PNA.ASX)

Pan Australian Resources (PNA.ASX) surprised me today by not only breaking its downtrend line, but rising 10c to break its previous high. I expected this to happen, just not in the near-term. I was expected the stock to retrace back to a 85c support based on weakness in copper prices. Maybe the market is telling me something? Might that be:
1. Earnings outlook: That it sees that its trading at just a PER of 4x earnings compared to 14x for its nemisis Oxiana Resources.
2. Metal prices: That copper prices are not going to weaken because of weakness in the USD. It makes sense that copper will be attractive if the USD is weak. I frankly think the USD is falling back to 85Yen, so thats about a 15% move, worth about 40c/lb to copper prices. As expected copper prices have retraced from their $4.00/lb level. I'm still thinking its not going to break $4.00, but I think it might just hold the higher end of its range. If something proves me wrong its going to be the extent to which the market has new supply coming on-stream, and the extent to which strikes are undermining capacity. Supply issues matching weaker demand.
The next issue is - where to from here. Well its encouraging that PNA rallied 10c, that it broke support, and then closed at its high. On that basis I think its going to take off. Looking at the chart, we see that PNA has a weak 'flag structure' or pendant, which suggests that the stock is going to rally another 45c, which would take it to $1.60. That makes for a nice trade. I think you can then some weakness, then consolidation around that level.
PNA is starting to justify its status as a blue chip - which is just as well because I would have little other place to stick it.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Sunday, April 06, 2008

Pan Australian Resources (PNA.ASX)

This company is more of a 'spec' than a 'blue chip' stock. It has a large resource base, offers large scale production and low unit costs. Whilst it has yet to start large scale production, it is a major project.
This stock makes for a great trade. It is constrained on the upside by a downstrend, and on the downside by a support level at 85c. The support is coming from the strong copper and gold prices, but since most of this strength is arising from a weak USD, there is some basis for weakness in this stock.
I see the stock falling back to 85c in coming months. But in the short term it will likely climb back to $1.05 per share. The outlook for this stock in the long term remains positive.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

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